Question #7 and Last: ‘Perry’s Luck’

OHP was known for ‘Perry’s luck’.  He moved the under-armed small ships to Erie only with a sudden fog; Barclay returned to blockade Erie only hours after Perry had gotten just enough ships over the bar and under shore battery protection to dissuade Barclay from attacking; on the day of the Battle, the wind changed just when he was about to attack without the weather gauge, etc.  Questions:  Were these events forced errors, or were they luck?  How much of history is fate, how much is skill?